The Group Stage of the 2019 World Cup is nearing its conclusion, and a clear top four has emerged, with England, India, Australia and New Zealand asserting their dominance.
So, time is running out for the other teams on the fringes to earn their place in the semi-finals by breaking up that top four. For some it is already too late. Afghanistan, West Indies and South Africa cannot now qualify, but Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan all have a chance.
For Pakistan, who pulled off a surprise tournament win on English soil the last time they entered a fifty over tournament, at the 2017 Champions Trophy, there are three games remaining in this year’s World Cup. And if they are to progress, they need to win all three, while hoping that other results go their way. It’s a tall order, particularly given that their next opponents are New Zealand.
The Black Caps were rated behind England and India in the betting ahead of this tournament, but they have taken advantage of a relatively straightforward early schedule, racking up wins against Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and South Africa, and they also had the bonus of taking a point from what would have been their toughest game so far, when their tie with India was washed out.
The momentum from that run carried them through a tricky tie against a talented but inconsistent West Indies side, and they go into Wednesday’s game against Pakistan with an unbeaten record and one foot in the semi-finals. They’ve got this far thanks to a deep batting line up, that boasts the class and experience of Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson, supported by an array of big-hitting all-rounders, and a battery of seam bowlers who have been relishing English conditions.
By contrast, Pakistan have struggled to find any sort of form so far in the tournament, their underpowered batting line-up offering little help to their bowlers, which explains why they have just two wins from their six games so far.
It’s not surprising then to find that BetCris make New Zealand the clear favourites to win this game. They are rated as a -166 chance while Pakistan are considered a +166 bet. But is it possible that the bookmakers are underrating Sarfaraz Ahmed’s side?
There is no doubt that they have some talented players in their squad, particularly among the bowlers, and in Mohammed Amir, they have the tournament’s leading wicket taker. Their ability to shock the best teams in this format was underlined by their surprise victory over tournament favourites England in their second game. And they will also benefit from playing this match at Edgbaston, Birmingham, which will be packed with Pakistan supporters for what is a make or break game.
To beat these opponents, Pakistan will have to rely on a stellar performance from their bowlers, as their batsman can’t be relied upon to chase a big total, but given their record, they cannot be written off and could well spring another surprise on Wednesday.
